25.7% reduction in absolute number of diagnoses between the Pre-COVID and COVID cohort largely accounted for by reduction in the number of low stage cases
Pre-COVID: 104 diagnoses
COVID: 77 diagnoses
Forecasting suggests excess cases will manifest throughout England over the next three years
Local disease: 586 excess cases
Regional disease: 228 excess cases
Distant disease: 105 excess cases
Projection tools suggest that increasing surgical capacity of cancer centers would eradicate this excess
Increase capacity by two cases per month: eradicated by 12 months
Increase capacity by three cases per month: eradicated by 7 months
Over the next three years there are likely to be extra cervical cancer cases diagnosed, attributable to lack of access to normal health care during the pandemic
Findings are not generalizable beyond England due to potential differences in pandemic management and cervical screening protocols
These excess cases can be eliminated by cancer centers increasing their surgical capacity by a few cases per month
The authors state
We have demonstrated that there will be a significant uplift in numbers of cases of cervical cancer presenting over the next 3 years as a result of both lack of diagnosis of established cases and an excess of cases caused by lack of screening
We have also demonstrated that increases in surgical capacity, while a challenge to achieve, would be capable of mitigating this increase with little increase in morbidity or mortality
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